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Executive Summary:
Reefer markets in Q4 2025 are set to tighten as holiday produce, cross-border imports, storage crops, and weather risks converge. Capacity remains steady year-over-year, but USDA and DAT data show recurring pressure in California, Arizona, Texas, the Southeast, and the Pacific Northwest. Shippers should plan ahead by locking in coverage early in these hotspots to manage volatility and protect downstream lanes.
Key Q4 Market Shifts:
California Citrus, Arizona Leafy Greens, and Texas Imports
For four straight years, these regions have set the pace for Q4 refrigerated freight. Texas border crossings handle nearly one-third of U.S. produce truck movements, making them the single largest driver of demand. California citrus regularly tops 300k tons in Q4, pushing tightness into Midwest and Northeast lanes. Arizona volumes are smaller but dominated by leafy greens, creating predictable stress during the Salinas–Yuma transition. Together, these surges have tightened reefer capacity every Q4 since 2021 and are expected again in late 2025.
Holiday-Driven Commodities
Accounting for 30–35% of Q4 fresh produce shipments, potatoes, apples, and onions anchor national volumes, while the PNW remains a major regional hotspot. On top of this baseline, seasonal peaks in cranberries, sweet potatoes, and poultry have caused repeated shortages in Southeast and Midwest markets, especially NC sweet potato and Florida vegetable lanes. This layering effect shifts scarcity eastward each holiday season and is expected to reemerge in Q4 2025.
La Niña Watch: Freeze Risk
NOAA has issued a La Niña Watch, noting that “a brief period of La Niña conditions is favored in the fall and early winter 2025-26 before reverting to ENSO-neutral.” Even a short La Niña raises the risk of early freezes in Florida, Georgia, and California, threatening harvest timing and disrupting refrigerated freight flows.
National Market Overview:
DAT National Reefer Rates:
Spot rates softened in early 2024 before recovering midyear, while contract rates held steady. Looking ahead, reefer spot rates are expected to stay 5 to 7 percent above contracts, the widest spread among trailer types. This gap highlights how perishables volatility continues to push reefer pricing ahead of broader market trends.
DAT Reefer Load-to-Truck Ratio:
Reefer load-to-truck ratios in 2025 are trending well above 2023 and 2024, underscoring stronger demand and fewer available trucks across the year. This signals a tougher operating environment heading into Q4 compared with the last two years.
DAT Outbound Reefer Capacity (Sep 28th, 2025)
The map shows outbound reefer capacity tightening as expected heading into Q4, with pressure in California, the South Central, Upper Midwest, and Northeast, while Florida and Arizona begin tightening ahead of seasonal shifts.
EIA U.S. Diesel and Crude Oil Outlook:
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The EIA projects retail diesel to hold near $3.50 per gallon into late 2025, with only slight year-over-year declines. Stable Brent crude prices and balanced margins suggest fuel surcharges will stay firm through the holiday shipping season.
Want the full picture?
The insights above only scratch the surface. The complete Q4 Reefer & Perishable Forecast includes:
- Week-by-week truck availability indexes showing exactly when and where capacity will tighten.
- Produce volumes and regional shipment data that reveal where demand will spike.
- Regional hotspot breakdowns with detailed market insights across key growing regions.
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